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Thursday, July 16, 2009
Is this like destroying the village in order to save it? If so, I guess we're in the middle of Obama's Vietnam... Is this like destroying the village in order to save it? If so, I guess we're in the middle of Obama's Vietnam... 'Mad Men' Gets 16 Emmy Nominations Mad Men, the AMC series about advertising men in the 1960s, has been nominated for 16 Emmy Awards, including Best Drama. Season Three of Mad Men will premier on August 16th, an event to look forward to with keen anticipation. $1.5 billion market in commercial Lunar services by 2020? Thanks to Oddyssey Moon, some evidence this may b true. Andrew Chaikin asks The Moon Still Beckons, But Does Anyone Care? I think, yes. But do enough and the right people care? More on We Choose the Moon; Reenacting Apollo 11 Virtually History has been reenacted by enthusiasts for every period from the Middle Ages to the Civil War. Now the greatest voyage of exploration in history is being reenacted in a manner befitting the Internet age at the site We Choose the Moon. Since Apollo 11, Changing Public Attitudes Toward Space Exploration On July 16th, 1969, the mightiest rocket ever built ignited its first stage engines and launched the mission of Apollo 11 to the Moon with much fanfare and public rejoicing. But as a story on the ABC website suggests, the public was rather tepid about the mission. More on Charles Bolden Confirmed as NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, a retired Marine General and former NASA astronaut, has been confirmed as NASA administrator by unanimous consent of the US Senate. He is scheduled to be sworn in on July 20th, the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing. Buzz Aldrin says that it is time to boldly go to Mars. There is much wrong with his assumptions and his proposals, but I do admire the spirit. Addendum: Glenn Reynolds says "We could have a colony on Mars for what the “stimulus” package cost. And it would have provided more stimulus, too . . ." Yeah, verily, yeah. Guy Fieri finds some Diners, Driveins, and Dives in Houston. Niko Nikos is especially a great place. William Dafoe will play Tars Tarkas, the Green Martian warlord in John Carter of Mars. Now, hoiw to make him eight feet tall and with four arms? Wednesday, July 15, 2009
A NASA manager predicts that Obama budget cuts may push back the return to the Moon eight years, making it likely, one supposes, that the first man to return to the Moon will speak Mandarin. Coburn and Sotomayor Spar on Gun Control During Wednesday's Sotomayor confirmation hearings, Senator Tom Coburn sparred with Judge Sotomayor on the subject of gun control. Aware no doubt of the NRA's threat to oppose her nomination, Judge Sotomayor's answers were cagey to say the least. Jerrol LeBaron a pushing a movement called Honor in Office which, among other thing, would require members of Congress to actually read the bills they vote on. Health Care Bill Passes Senate Committee The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee voted out a version of the Health Care Bill on partisan lines for a vote of 13 to 10. The Health Care Bill has been roundly criticized for its cost and its effect of advancing socialized medicine. Does Obama Throw like a Girl? Some pundits are using President Barack Obama's throwing out the first pitch at the 2009 All Stars Baseball game to find a new way to criticize him. Apparently, though it was not readily apparent to TV audience, Obama throws like a girl. Rand Simberg celebrates the second launch of a Falcon 1, as is proper. But he just can't resist taking some shots. The event may have been a significant nail in the coffin of what many view as NASA’s current flawed plans for a return to the moon in the coming decade. How that is true is not very clear. The development of a commercial Earth to LEO industry is part of NASA's over all strategy for going back to the Moon. If NASA is freed from having to run a space line to ISS, it can better concentrate on destinations beyond. Rand continues: It (the Constellation program) is currently under fire as a result of serious technical issues for the planned new launchers, with exploding cost estimates and schedule slips. Of course it should also be pointed out that the Falcon project has also had its share of technical issues, exploding costs,and schedule slips. The first three Falcon 1s failed to achieve orbit. But there seems to be a double standard when judging private endeavors and government projects. The cardinal rule is "It always costs more and takes longer." Rand finishes with a very nice horse whipping of Senator Richard Shelby, who has been engaging in a little bit of predatory budget tactics by trying to siphon off funding for commercial space to prop up Constellation. But it is not a question of either commercial or the Moon, as Rand implies. Both are important and both need adequate funding. Ayn Rand and 'Atlas Shrugged' More Popular Than Ever One of the most popular authors of 2009 is a woman, born in Russia, famous for her philosophical novels with just the hint of melodrama as well as her somewhat quirky personality. She has been dead nearly thirty years and her name is Ayn Rand. Let's once again dare to dream. Of course there are dreams aplenty. I would settle for a little more doing to make the dreams reality. Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Senator Orrin Hatch Grills Sotomayor on Gun Rights, Abortion Senator Orrin Hatch questioned Judge Sotomayor, for the most part, on her views concerning the 2nd Amendment to the Constitution that ensures the right to keep and bear arms. But first there was a question about abortion and judicial precedence. Mat Patterson compares people like Barack Obama and Michael Jackson with a real hero whose feat is to be celebrate in less than a week. A battlefield robot that refuels by eating dead bodies? The mind boggles. Addendum: Ed Morrissey has some thoughts. On the plus side, Bin Laden being composted by a piece of steel would be sweet poetic justice. On the minus side, when Skynet finally becomes self-aware, things are going to get dodgy in a hurry. Senator Sessions Grills Sotomayor Judge Sonia Sotomayor appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to answer questions concerning her nomination to the Supreme Court. Ranking member Senator Jeff Sessions went right to Sotomayor's "wise Latina" remark. More on SpaceX Launches 2nd Successful Falcon 1 The entrepreneurial rocket company, SpaceX, achieved a milestone toward its goal of becoming a private space launch enterprise by successfully launching its Falcon 1 rocket a second time, nine months after its successful first Falcon 1 launch. Obama Teleprompter Takes a Tumble Barack Obama's teleprompter, also known throughout the Internet as TOTUS (Teleprompter of the United States) met an untimely end as it came loose and went crashing down to the floor in the middle of a speech by Barack Obama. A new idea has come out of deliberations of the Augustine 2.0 Committee. Call it duo Ares V, except that the Orion Ares V would be smaller. The big question is funding. Addendum: I've noticed a lot of chatter on the net about what this story means. Ares is dead. VSE is dead. And so on. I would like to caution one and all that while the first is possible (and the second not likely because of certain political considerations) people seem to be misreading what Augustine 2.0 is doing. Augustine 2.0 will not actually issue recommendations. It will not state, "Let;s trash Ares and do X" nor will it say, "Let's keep Ares." Augustine 2.0 will instead provide some options, with pros and cons for each, one of which will likely be "Keep Ares" and the others certain best alternatives. That's one reason Augustine 2.0 is being thorough in seeking out all possible alternatives, including duo Ares 5, which I find fascinating. The problem with this approach is that the final decision will be done by politicians (likely the one named Barack Obama) for political reasons and then argued about by other politicians (in the Congress.) It is likely to as messy as sausage making and just as unappetizing to look at. Monday, July 13, 2009
Congratulations to the folks at SpaceX for the second successful launch of a Falcon 1. Doing it the first time made history. Doing it again suggests that at last a truly private launch industry is being born. Addendum: Clark Lindsey discusses. Is John Holdren Obama's Dr. Strangelove? John Holdren is President Barack Obama's White House Science Advisor. John Holdren is also the co-author of a 1977 book called Eco Science in which he offered a series of recommendations that seem right out of dystopian science fiction. Sonia Sotomayor Hearings Promise Fireworks The Sonia Sotomayer hearings started on Monday with each of the Senators on the Judiciary Committee beginning with their opening statements. Depending on the party affiliation of the Senator, they might have been talking about two different people. Announcing the publication of The Last Moonwalker and Other Stories by Mark R. Whittngtonm exclusively for the Amazon Kindle: The Last Moonwalker – In the near future, as human explorers prepare to take the first voyage to the Moon in decades, Charles Gerald, the last Apollo Moonwalker, lends his advice to the crew of the expedition as he wrestles with his own legacy. The First Woman on the Moon – Set in the same universe as Children of Apollo, Wendy Pendleton, who will fly on the mission of Apollo 23, remembers the cost of becoming the first woman on the Moon. Two Old Men – Two retired politicians, in the same universe as Children of Apollo, face a deadly disease a treatment for which was developed in space. Dark Sanction – As World War II rages, Gabriella, Venetian aristocrat, spy for British Intelligence, vampire is menaced by a Nazi vampire hunter with occult powers. Hurtgen Moon – An American rifle squad battles a werewolf during one of World War II’s bloodiest battles. Witnessing Apollo – The flight of Apollo 11 helps an alien visitor decide the fate of the Earth,. And Now, the Jackson Three? The custody battle over the children of Michael Jackson took on a strange twist, according to a story in the London newspaper The Sun, as reported by Fox News. It seems that Michael Jackson's father may be planning a new music group, the Jackson Three. 'True Blood' Season 2, Episode 4: Shake and Fingerpop True Blood Season 2 Episode 4 Shake and Fingerpop advanced the story on the southern vampires and their human friends a little further. And the viewer got to visit Dallas, the "most vampire friendly city in the state of Texas." Kim Jong-Il Dying of Pancreatic Cancer, Reports Say The Guardian newspaper is reporting that South Korean media has announced that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer is a particularly fatal disease with a five year survival rate at just over five percent. Sunday, July 12, 2009
Mike Griffin may be hated in certain corners of the Internet, but it seems that love him in Huntsville whee he now resides. Griffin sees other worrisome trends, including "the trend of believing we can cut budgets on a yearly basis and make it up later. Stretch the project out. Money is always so tight that we continually fall victim, as the space station is a great example, of cutting the annual appropriation and saying, 'We'll just take longer.' " All very true, which will not mollify the Internet Rocketeer Club in the slightest. Addendum: Jon Goff sends the following response: Mark, The key part of Jon's note, upon which his conclusions are based, is "So why did he aid and abet this by going after a rocket that theoretically would be only a little safer than existing rockets, but take $20B and almost a decade to develop?" The cost and schedule for the development of Ares is rather irrelevant to the point Dr. Griffin is making. These are affected by a variety of factors, including what development money is appropriated vs. what was promised, unpredictable technical challenges, and so on. These factors have been observed to affect not only big, expensive projects being undertaken by governments, but more entrepreneurial projects (SpaceX's Falcon comes to mind.) This is not to slam anyone of them. It is just an illustration of one of the first rules of technology development. "It costs more and it takes longer." On the matter of safety, Jon must be much more than an engineer; he must be a prophet. Otherwise he would not deign to suggest what the safety margins of not just one but two rockets (i.e. the Ares 1 and an EELV derived launch vehicle, the nature of which is still undefined) would be. It is true that on occasion estimates are made for such things, but as other people have pointed out to Jon, these are just snapshots in time during the development cycle of a vehicle that won't actually achieve its final form and start flying for over five years by current estimates. Such estimates change over time. Making bald statements like Jon's is not the same as making a persuasive argument. Jerry Pournell ruminates about Apollo. Here is the key takeaway paragraph: Apollo didn't have to be a folly. There were plenty of ways to follow on with real development to become a space faring nation. Lyndon Johnson, not my favorite President, understood how decisive space supremacy could be. Reagan understood the value of space. Bush I wasn't interested, and we got DC/X only because Dan Quayle was chairman of the National Space Council and Bush let Quayle have his way, sort of, only there weren't funds for the full SSX. The problem was, of course, Clinton became President and he was definately not interested. Bus 43 was far better in that regard, as we got both commercial space development and an exploration mission appropriate for a government agency like NASA. Obama? I have my fears, but hope to be proven wrong. We Miss You Tony Snow July 12th is the one year anniversary of the passing of Tony Snow, who was, in his time, a Fox News personality, a radio talk show host, a newspaper columnist, and one of the best White House Press Secretaries in history. Saturday, July 11, 2009
John Holdren, Obama's science advisor, is really quite scary. Forced abortions. Mass sterilization. A “Planetary Regime” with the power of life and death over American citizens. In which Senator Shelby gets slapped for eschewing support of the private sector in favor of pork barrel politics. Michael Jackson Death a Homicide? The idea that Michael Jackson's death might have been the result of a homicide would have seemed to have been a nutty conspiracy theory, were it not for the fact that LA Police Chief Bill Bratton has refused to rule the possibility out. The preferred alternative to Ares (at least among NASA and some industry people) appears to be Shuttle HLV. It is said that the advantage is development costs. This disadvantage is that it won't send as much to the Moon as Ares. That means that the idea of refueling depots takes on greater importance. And, of course, since no one can pretend that it is "commercial" it will make the Internet Rocketeer Club angry. Friday, July 10, 2009
'Burn Notice': Signals and Codes In the latest Burn Notice episode, Signals and Codes, Michael Weston meets two new friends. One is a spy still in the good graces of the Agency who is flying missions to Latin America. The other is a mathematician who is more insane than John Nash. Obama Checking Out Girl, Photo from G8 Shows One of the most famous pictures going around the Internet, thanks to Matt Drudge, is a scene from the G8 Summit in L'Aquila, Italy, which depicts President Obama appreciating the endowments of a young lady as she passes by. Rand Simberg poses the silliest idea I have ever heard of concerning space policy, which is quite a feat all things considered. If I were Norm Augustine, I would suggest that NASA be encouraged to innovate by being forbidden to develop a vehicle with more capability than the biggest existing Atlas V. This would finally force them to stop wasting money on the heavy-lift fetish, and get on with the business of developing a cost-effective (and scalable) in-space transportation infrastructure. For one thing, Rand once again gets his history wrong. The Mings forbade the building and sailing of any ship capable of deep water travel, punishable by death. Second, this is the equivlent of a 16th Century monarch forbidding the construction of any ship larger than a caravel, which would have precluded the development of the galleon. It is hardly sound space policy to tell ones premier space agency what it can't do in the form of innovation and technology development. I would instead task NASA with developing ways to make heavy lifters more cost effective. 'Royal Pains': No Man is an Island Royal Pains' No Man is an Island episode begins with Dr. Hank and Jill, the beauteous hospital administrator, finally about to do the dirty deed, with clothes flying and limbs beginning to intertwine. Naturally brother Evan interrupts and spoils the mood. Thursday, July 09, 2009
The imminent death of the Ares 1 and 5 has been predicted so many times, that this might be taken with a grain of salt, except for one fact. Augustine 2.0 is not going to so much make recommendations as supply "options." So the final decision of how we go back to he Moon is likely to be a political one from the Obama administration. It may well not please anyone. It looks like the next novel by Newt Gingrich and Bill Forstchen will be set in the Revolutionary War: The New Scientist, which disdained the Apollo program 40 years ago, is now of the opinion that there may be something to this idea of human space exploration after all. Mount Rushmore Defaced by Greenpeace Activists Greenpeace environmental activists managed to add a fifth face, that of Barack Obama, to Mouth Rushmore next to that of President Lincoln, albeit temporarily. The face of Obama was in the form of a banner demanding an end to global warming. Apparently Senator Shelby's attempt to rob commercial space support to augment Constellation is running into trouble in Texas. Ford, which did not get a bailout, is beating government owned GM in June sales. There is an obvious lesson here. Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Paul Spudis tackles the question of whether or not to provide NASA with more funding and, I think, comes to the wrong conclusion. Part of the problem with the NASA return to the Moon program is that NASA has never been given sufficient funding to do what it has been charged to do to start with. This is not the fault of the chosen architecture, by the way. It would have been true whatever launch system that NASA chose. Paul, in his complaints about cost overruns, seems to forget one of the underlining principles of new space technology development. There are two, in fact. It always costs more than you think. It always takes longer than you think. This has been true of most private sector projects (those that have actually succeeded) as well as most government projects. Again this is not a principle of which architecture is chosen, but rather the fact that there are too many unknowns when one is estimating the cost of a program. There are three solutions to a problem of this nature. Appropriate more up front development money. Stretch the project out (which winds up costing more money.) Or start ditching capability (i.e. things like Paul is complaining about like surface exploration.) Traditionally the US government choses the latter two options and has always regretted it. For one thing, being too stingy on development very often increases operations costs. The space shuttle is a classic example of how this happens. Paul does make a point with which I am in hearty agreement, with a caveat. "The fact that we’ve had the same space budget for thirty years (in constant dollars, between 0.5 and 1.0% of federal spending, more or less) suggests that this level of funding is politically sustainable." Of course there is a vast difference between .5 percent of federal spending and 1 percent. Now the Senate mark for the 2010 NASA budget comes out to about .54 percent of the President's 2010 budget request, about 3.5 trillion dollars, which is on the low end of the range that Paul says in sustainable. If NASA's budget were to be 1 percent of the 2010 budget request, it would be an incredible amount of just over 35 billion dollars, a figure no one, sane or not, has ever dreamed of. Most people like Mike Griffin suggest that the return to the Moon program could be gotten back on track by the addition of another two, possibly three billion dollars a year. That would create a NASA budget, rounded up, of no greater than 22 billion dollars. That is a NASA budget for 2010 of just over .6 percent of projected federal spending, well within Paul's range of what is sustainable. So, really, I'm not sure what the complaint is about. North Korean Cyber Attack Shows Danger of Cyber War Cyber war, in which computer viruses are launched to attempt to take down computer systems, is the latest strategy that some countries are using to try to inflict pain on another. Both North Korea and Israel are suspected of launching cyber attacks on their enemies. 'Warehouse 13' Debuts and Disappoints Warehouse 13, the latest offering of the network formerly known as the Sci Fi Channel and now known as SyFy, has an interesting premise, then being of a warehouse filled with strange artifacts and two government agents assigned to guard them. Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Jeff Foust has a great posting on yet another report on our future in space from the National Research Council. The recommendations are pretty sound. There also seems to be some overlap between the group that put out the NRC report and Augustin 2.0. Charles Bolden, soon to be NASA administrator, reviewed the report. The Michael Jackson Memorial - Wretched Excess and Media Pathos For wretched excess, the Michael Jackson memorial at Staple Center in Los Angeles is matched only by the outpouring of angst and grief because of the death of Princess Diana over ten years ago. There are some differences. 'District 9' Film Coming Soon The premise for District 9, a film produced by Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings, King Kong) and directed by Neill Blomkamp, is that about thirty years ago a giant alien space craft filled with alien refugees arrived on Earth. |